The derivation of projection-based scenarios for UK cities

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These numerical scenarios were generated as part of the Foresight Future of Cities project run by the Government Office for Science. They give alternative distributions of projected population and employment to aid exploration of possible future paths for the 64 largest UK cities, taking them together as a whole system. Such futures range from even greater concentration of activities in London and the South East, to more dispersed distributions of opportunities throughout the country. They provide a tool for use by individual cities in long-term visioning exercises, or at national level to promote discussions of possible alternative futures.

Key features

The report explains how the numerical scenarios were prepared, with graphical illustrations of the results for regional groupings of cities. It also tabulates detailed results for each of the 64 largest cities. Although the scenarios were produced for consistency by manipulating a common national database relating to 2037, they can be considered as a proxy for a much longer term view of the country. They provide a starting point for stakeholders to imagine what life in their city might be like and, by working backwards, what sort of major policy changes would be necessary to bring about each different distribution of activities.

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